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By NEIL HARTNELL
December 22, 2016

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

#The Democratic National Alliance’s (DNA) leader yesterday lamented that too few Bahamians understand the ‘junk’ downgrade’s significance, and will only wake-up when Miami shopping trips are priced beyond their means.

#Branville McCartney told Tribune Business that many Bahamians would only realise what they had lost when it was “too late”, and the currency already devalued, as a result of the country’s inability to reverse its economic and fiscal course.

#The newly-appointed Senate Opposition leader likened Standard & Poor’s (S&P) action to “a charcoal present under the Christmas tree”, and predicted that it would further deter Bahamian and foreign investment in this nation.

#With domestic private sector activity likely to slow ahead of the upcoming general election, Mr McCartney predicted that the Bahamas’ loss of ‘investment grade’ status would make “very nervous and afraid” businesses even more reluctant to invest and create jobs.

#Suggesting that S&P’s ‘junk downgrade’ had placed the Bahamas in a “nerve-wracking” position, the DNA chief said ‘economic growth’ had become more a ‘turn of phrase’ than something this nation “put into effect”.

#“It’s a present from S&P. It is like charcoal under the Christmas tree,” Mr McCartney told Tribune Business of the downgrade to ‘speculative’ or ‘junk’ status.

#“Our Government was warned about this. We have seen that the Government continues to be off-base with regard to their projections for this economy.

#“There’s been nothing put in place to curb our spending and the wastage going on in this country. We can expect more of these types of downgrades if the Government doesn’t put certain measures in place to eliminate the corruption that’s going on, collect our outstanding taxes and make sure we put the VAT money where it is supposed to go.”

#Mr McCartney, though, expressed concern that many Bahamians may not appreciate the significance of S&P’s actions and how it could impact them personally, especially through reduced resources for public services, potential private sector retrenchment and job losses.

#“That is going to be the obvious cost that will probably happen as a result of the change; we’re going to have to pay more for our borrowing,” the DNA leader agreed.

#“It affects this country in every which way as a result. The unfortunate thing is that Bahamians, for the most part, don’t recognise the significance of this. The only time they will realise the significance is when they can’t go to Miami, because it costs them four times’ more, as the Bahamian dollar will be nowhere what it’s worth now.

#“That’s probably the only time they will realise and ask: What the hell has happened? By then it’ll be too late.”

#The ‘junk’ downgrade, and loss of ‘investment grade’ status, is potentially highly damaging for the Bahamas and its reputation for economic stability, as it signals to the international capital markets that this nation’s creditworthiness (the Government’s ability to pay its debts) is slipping into dangerous territory.

#The Government will likely have to pay more for current and future debt issues, raising its debt servicing (interest) costs, and sucking money away from essential public and security services

#The ‘junk’ downgrade may also deter investors assessing the Bahamas as a place to invest, as it raises questions about the Government’s economic management.

#Mr McCartney acknowledged that S&P’s ‘junk downgrade’ would make existing and potential foreign investors “think twice” about undertaking expansion projects in the Bahamas, adding this would also likely apply to locally-owned businesses.

#“Local businesses - like they were before - are likely to think twice now about investing to grow and expand,” the DNA leader added. “They’re nervous and afraid.

#“The economy typically slows before elections, but in light of this downgrade it’s going to slow even more, causing our country to be in a position where ‘economic growth’ is a term used, not something that is put into effect. It’s very nerve-wracking.”

#Mr McCartney repeated his party’s call for Prime Minister Perry Christie to make a national address outlining the practical steps the Government plans to take in response to S&P’s action, “and give us some comfort on this”.

#The Government’s initial reaction, though, was to pin all its hopes on the Baha Mar project finally opening and creating several thousand new Bahamian jobs. The rest of its statement was typically vague, and short on detail in terms of growth and job-creating initiatives.

#Slamming the Government for being ‘all talk and no action’, Mr McCartney told Tribune Business: “The Prime Minister is the best talker in the world, but when it comes to execution and getting things done, he goes into reverse.”

#Acknowledging that “the warning signs” for a ‘junk’ downgrade had been building for decades, and across both PLP and FNM administrations, Mr McCartney said S&P had indicated what the Bahamas needed to do to avoid this latest action when its representatives met with the DNA in the summer.

#“The Government did nothing, nothing, nothing,” he charged. “We’re teetering on the edge of collapse.

#“Personally, being a Bahamian, I’m very, very concerned. I know many other business persons, professionals and foreign investors who live here are concerned.

#“The Government seems devoid of ideas, and not to have the political will to get our economy back on track.”

An Interesting Comment

Here is a lesson in Downgrade101. The foreign-currency denominated sovereign bonds are held by institutions like the Royal Bank. The banks/buyers flog them to companies like Goldman Sachs. These are fixed rate, high interest bonds & with a good rating, they should be hot commodities. Buyers such as pension funds & hedge funds buy these things if the credit rating is good.

Typically what Goldman Sachs does, is buy a basket of bonds of similar types -say Caribbean Sovereign Debt. They collaterized these, meaning put them in 1 basket & sell them as investment grade securities. This is a CDO or collaterized debt obligation. They sell shares of this CDO.

Now what happens if the credit rating of the issuers of these bonds falls? The underlying financial investments -the CDO falls in value, because the danger of default rises. Holders of these buy/sell Credit Default Swaps. In other words, they buy insurance against a country defaulting on its debt. Because they buy insurance & pay monthly, this digs into the yield of the interest rate.

2 things can happen. They can push for bond redemption. This means that the government has to come up with the money to buy back these bonds. The government is already stretched for cash & if they get a bill for $300 million, then we are fooked. We don't have the cash & we can't borrow it, because our credit is shiite, so we default & that means eating pigeon & coconut for the lucky ones.

The other option is that the bond is non-redeemable. It sells for pennies on the dollar in the secondary market. They may be strip bonds with coupons, meaning that some of the interest is payable in that year before maturity. The government is also fooked in this scenario, because strip bond coupon redemption on a $300 million bond is anywhere between $15 & $30 million depending on the interest rate & we know that the government couldn't come up with the $40 million to save BoB without more debt, so we are fooked again & facing default.

The last scenario is that the bond is non-redeemable by the holder, but because the holders are buying CD Swaps or insurance, it is not worth the paper that it is printed on when that bond is either traded, or a collaterized version is traded on the secondary market. When it comes due, we are fooked again. It just puts of the bending over for a few years on just this bond.

The bottom line is that some of the debt denominated in American dollars is held as reserves by the Central Bank. If the prospect of default rises, the world's bankers will demand that we have more reserves. We can't come up with them because tourism is down, the economy is not growing & we are fooked. So the Bahamian dollar is devalued. It will probably go down to between 25 and 35 cents & some economists peg the real value at 12 cents on the US dollar. $9 Bahamian dollars will buy one US Dollar

For use as a pest repellent, prepare a well-concentrated mint tea. Place it in a spray bottle and spray every corner of your home, especially the corners of the doors and the rims of the windows. This will be disagreeable for the insects and it will deter them from your home.  

I had problems with ants entering through a kitchen window, until I placed a mint plant in the window sill.

The Chinese are apparently the only foreign investors interested in these Countries because they have a geopolitical purpose rather than a purely profit driven interest as most other investors would have.

Some like the Bahamas face the possibility of becoming neo-colonies of China due to the lack of interest by other investors and the inability of the Government developing any self operated system for economic development. Governments of the Bahamas have failed to develop a Capital Market Driven Economy (CMDE) as previously proposed by the Council for Concerned Bahamians Abroad (CBA).

The question then becomes whether it is beneficial to the economic future of the citizens of the Bahamas to become de facto citizens of a Chinese neo-colony. Can Bahamians exist with financial support primarily from the Chinese?

Due the small population of the Country it is entirely conceivable that the Bahamas can achieve financial stability for its small population of citizens totally from Chinese largess. The further question is whether the citizenry is prepared to pay the price of Chinese neo-colonization for benefits of financial gain?

In other words are Bahamians willing to sell their souls and future ability to control their own destiny for money? Some may feel that this is the history of the Country and its people, all we really know to do, and in order to maintain an adequate standard of living becoming a Chinese neo-colony should be okay. This however is not the opinion of the Council for Concerned Bahamians Abroad (CBA), or most Bahamians and friends of the Bahamas that the CBA has polled.

It is therefore incumbent on the current Government, and those who aspire to become the Government to put in play some method of self controlled and directed economic development plan. This is particularly so since many of the experts seem to feel that the opening of the doors of Cuba, will mean the closing of many doors to future economic development for Caribbean countries, and particularly for the Bahamas.

The issue arose from earlier Parliamentary submissions of private email information obtained by a Government Cabinet Minister and member of Parliament attempting to show improprieties on the part of a Lyford Cay Resident to refute allegations of corruption by Government leaders. The dispute originated between two powerful foreign Lyford Cay Residents, with Government parliamentary members being implicated on one side. The Judge issued an injunction against Parliamentarians using Parliament Privilege to reveal such private information in their public deliberations.

Government Parliamentarians and Cabinet Minister Members of Parliament including the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Education then introduced a parliamentary resolution to bring the Judge and the two Lawyers who petitioned the Court, to appear before Parliament to question their actions. The Bahamas Bar Association and others have declared that such a parliamentary move would seriously challenge the Doctrine of Separation of Powers in the Bahamas, and put the Country's international reputation at risk.

Meanwhile some Government Parliamentarians claim that it is the Judge, the lawyers and their foreign client who are trying to undermine the Government, the Country, and its Doctrine of Separation of Powers. This is a somewhat strange position in that it is universally recognized that it is the Court who ultimately decides on the constitutionality of Parliamentary actions.

The Council for Concerned Bahamians Abroad (CBA) in prior Analytical Reports has detailed the inherent weakness of the practice of Separation of Powers within the Westminster System of government, and the Bahamas in particular.

See more on this story at:

http://www.thenassauguardian.com/news/64379

http://www.thenassauguardian.com/news/64384

US congressman Eliot Engel, ranking member of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, on Thursday welcomed the unanimous approval by the Committee of his legislation to prioritize the United States-Caribbean relationship.

The United States-Caribbean Strategic Engagement Act of 2016, which Engel introduced last week with well known Anti-Castro Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of Florida, would require the Secretary of State and the Administrator of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) to submit to Congress a multiyear strategy focused on outreach to the countries of the Caribbean and diaspora communities in the US, improving energy security, countering violence, ramping up diplomacy, and other priority areas.

“It’s a big world with a lot of challenges — some that get more attention than others. So it’s important to stay focused on our neighbors in the Caribbean. These countries are profoundly important to the United States,” said Engel at Thursday’s Committee markup. “This bill makes it clear that US-Caribbean relations are a major priority.”

“We’ll end up with the best policy if we shape it in consultation with the many Caribbean-American citizens in the United States,” Engel continued. “It’s a strength for us to have such a strong and vibrant diaspora community. So this bill also calls for revitalized outreach to this community, seeking greater input on ideas for economic development and citizen security.”

The legislation requires the State Department and USAID to:

• Identify agency efforts to prioritize US policy towards the Caribbean;
• Outline an approach to broaden outreach to the Caribbean diaspora community in the United States;
• Outline an approach to partner with governments of the Caribbean region to improve citizen security and reduce drug trafficking;
• Establish a comprehensive, multi-year strategy to improve energy security and increase access to diverse, reliable, affordable and sustainable power;
• Outline an approach to improve diplomatic engagement with governments of the Caribbean region; and
• Develop an approach to assisting Caribbean countries in the diversification of their economies.

In addition, the bill requires the Government Accountability Office to produce two key reports:

• An evaluation of the Caribbean Basin Security Initiative (CBSI) and a breakdown of CBSI assistance provided to each country; and
• An evaluation of US diplomatic engagement with the Eastern Caribbean.

See More at:

http://www.caribflame.com/2016/04/bill-to-enhance-us-caribbean-ties-clears-committee-stage//

https://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-congress/house-bill/4939

The 50th NFL Superbowl halftime show included a dance routine from Beyonce Knowles.  Beyonce and the other dancers in the routine wore clothing fashioned after the Black Panther Party for Self Defense.  The performance and the chosen attire has seemed to cause some outrage, and labeling the group as a hate and/or supremacy organization and even comparing the organization with the Klu Klux Klan.  The Black Panther Party for Self Defense was an organization founded in 1966.  The group formed in response to practices of police brutality.  The members armed themselves, patrolled neighborhoods, monitored the behavior of those employed as police and challenged acts of brutality in Oakland California.     

The Klu Klux Klan was founded sometime between 1865 and 1866 by six members who were former soldiers in the Confederate Army.  In response to the Reconstruction Era, Klan groups started to spread throughout the South United States.  The actions of members of the Klan groups caused the federal government to pass the Enforcement Acts; the Enforcement Act of 1870, the First Enforcement Act of 1871, the Second Enforcement Act of 1871 and the Civil Rights Act of 1875.    
The Klu Klux Klan resurfaced from the years of 1915 to 1944 and again from the 1950s through the 1960s.  The actions, tactics and influence of the Klan groups caused the Federal government to pass additional Civil Rights Acts.  

Hate is defined as feeling of dislike or an aversion to.  Even if both organizations were founded based on hatred, the outright evil and violent actions of one group is seemingly overlooked in an effort to make some the comparison of the two organizations.  I'm even wondering if those individuals who have expressed their issue with the halftime performance and attire, have equally expressed their issue with the Production Executives who not only had knowledge of the performance and attire but actually have the power to approve or cancel performances.  It would seem with the advancement sapient man has been able to achieve, the ability to overcome an illusion would be rather easy.  
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Original: http://reasonablethought.weebly.com/blog/halftime-show
Posted: February 12, 2016, 2:18 pm